When stock runs low, they reorder. When storage is full, they stop. The result is either a rush shipment or a warehouse full of slow-moving sizes.
Forecasting does not require software. It requires three numbers and a simple monthly review.
For each size you use, write down how many units you consumed per month. Not how many you ordered, how many you actually used.
If you do not have the data, start tracking now. One line per size per month is enough.
Look at your highest usage month. Add 15 to 20 percent as a buffer. This covers order spikes, supplier lead time, and unexpected events.
The buffer is not waste. It is protection against running out during your busiest week.
Sea freight takes 25 to 40 days. Air freight takes 7 to 14 days. Express takes 3 to 7 days.
Your order quantity should cover usage during the lead time plus your safety buffer. If sea freight takes 35 days and you use 1,000 containers per month, you need at least 1,200 containers just to cover transit, plus a buffer.
Once a month, compare actual usage against your forecast. If actual usage is consistently higher or lower, adjust the next order.
Do not change the forecast every week. Monthly review is enough.
If you are unsure about a new size, add it to a mixed order rather than committing to a full container. Test it for one or two months before increasing volume.
We support mixed orders from one case, so you can test without overstocking.
A meal prep business uses 800 medium containers and 400 large containers per month. Sea freight takes 30 days. They add a 20 percent buffer.
Their order quantity is 960 medium and 480 large, enough to cover transit plus a small buffer. They review usage monthly and adjust quarterly.
We keep your size list and past order quantities on file. When you are ready to reorder, we confirm the same specifications and ship same day for orders placed by 2 PM.
If you want help building a forecast, send us your monthly usage by size and your destination port. We will suggest a practical order rhythm.
